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2000 President · MD

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,230 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 39%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 40.19%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.488 − 40.185 = 16.303
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (16.303) = 0.696
  4. Absolute miss = |0.696| = 0.696

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63559, race ID 826 (538 database).