2000 Senate · MD
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,198 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 37%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.18% · Republican 36.73%
D+26.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 37 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 63.178 − 36.734 = 26.444
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (26.444) = -1.444
- Absolute miss = |-1.444| = 1.444
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63559, race ID 1692 (538 database).