2000 President · KY
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 3,318 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 54%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.38% · Republican 56.51%
R+15.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 41.378 − 56.506 = -15.128
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-15.128) = 3.128
- Absolute miss = |3.128| = 3.128
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63557, race ID 823 (538 database).