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2000 President · HI

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 589 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 38%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.79% · Republican 37.46%

D+18.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.792 − 37.463 = 18.329
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.329) = -3.329
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.329| = 3.329

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63552, race ID 817 (538 database).