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2000 Senate · HI

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 585 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 33%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 72.69% · Republican 24.51%

D+48.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 33 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 72.685 − 24.507 = 48.178
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (48.178) = -19.178
  4. Absolute miss = |-19.178| = 19.178

The poll overstated the Republican by 19.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63552, race ID 1689 (538 database).