2000 President · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 17,033 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 46%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.009) = 3.009
- Absolute miss = |3.009| = 3.009
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63550, race ID 815 (538 database).