2000 Senate · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 16,996 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.852) = -0.851
- Absolute miss = |-0.851| = 0.851
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63550, race ID 1687 (538 database).