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2000 President · CT

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 2,525 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 40%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.91% · Republican 38.44%

D+17.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 40 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.910 − 38.444 = 17.466
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (17.466) = -6.466
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.466| = 6.466

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63549, race ID 812 (538 database).