2000 Senate · CT
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 2,504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 34%
D+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.21% · Republican 34.17%
D+29.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 34 = 27.00
- Actual margin = 63.214 − 34.171 = 29.043
- Signed miss = 27.00 − (29.043) = -2.043
- Absolute miss = |-2.043| = 2.043
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63549, race ID 1685 (538 database).