2000 President · CO
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 3,697 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 48%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.39% · Republican 50.75%
R+8.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.394 − 50.750 = -8.356
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-8.356) = 3.357
- Absolute miss = |3.357| = 3.357
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63548, race ID 811 (538 database).