2000 President · CA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 25,017 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.45% · Republican 41.65%
D+11.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 53.450 − 41.651 = 11.799
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.799) = -5.798
- Absolute miss = |-5.798| = 5.798
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63547, race ID 810 (538 database).