2000 Senate · CA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 24,965 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 40%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.84% · Republican 36.59%
D+19.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 55.843 − 36.587 = 19.256
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (19.256) = -7.256
- Absolute miss = |-7.256| = 7.256
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63547, race ID 1684 (538 database).