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2000 President · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 4,656 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 52%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.73% · Republican 51.02%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 52 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.735 − 51.021 = -6.286
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-6.286) = -5.713
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.713| = 5.713

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63546, race ID 809 (538 database).