2000 President · AK
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 756 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 54%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 27.67% · Republican 58.62%
R+31.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 54 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 27.666 − 58.621 = -30.955
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-30.955) = 7.955
- Absolute miss = |7.955| = 7.955
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63545, race ID 806 (538 database).