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2000 President · NE

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 1,007 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 56%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.25% · Republican 62.24%

R+29.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 56 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.253 − 62.245 = -28.992
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-28.992) = 3.992
  4. Absolute miss = |3.992| = 3.992

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6352, race ID 835 (538 database).