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2000 President · NY

CBS News/The New York Times · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 871 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 35%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 35 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (24.189) = -4.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.189| = 4.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6343, race ID 840 (538 database).