2000 Senate · MI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 42%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.86%
D+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.475 − 47.861 = 1.614
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (1.614) = 0.386
- Absolute miss = |0.386| = 0.386
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6333, race ID 1694 (538 database).