2000 President · FL
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.009) = 7.009
- Absolute miss = |7.009| = 7.009
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6332, race ID 815 (538 database).