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2000 President · NV

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.98% · Republican 49.52%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.976 − 49.522 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.546) = -0.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.454| = 0.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6325, race ID 839 (538 database).