2000 Senate · NV
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 54%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.69% · Republican 55.09%
R+15.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 54 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 39.693 − 55.092 = -15.399
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-15.399) = -1.602
- Absolute miss = |-1.602| = 1.602
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6325, race ID 1700 (538 database).