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2000 Senate · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 42%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 43.29%

D+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.834 − 43.293 = 5.541
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.541) = -0.542
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.542| = 0.542

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6324, race ID 1695 (538 database).