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2000 President · AR

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.86% · Republican 51.31%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.864 − 51.307 = -5.443
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.443) = 5.443
  4. Absolute miss = |5.443| = 5.443

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6316, race ID 808 (538 database).