2000 House · AR-4
Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 46%
even
The certified result
Democrat 50.97% · Republican 49.03%
D+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 50.972 − 49.028 = 1.944
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.944) = -1.945
- Absolute miss = |-1.945| = 1.945
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6316, race ID 2299 (538 database).