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2000 President · FL

Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2000-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-0.009) = -3.991
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.991| = 3.991

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6313, race ID 815 (538 database).