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2000 President · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 46%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.39% · Republican 50.75%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 46 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.394 − 50.750 = -8.356
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-8.356) = -0.643
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.643| = 0.643

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6305, race ID 811 (538 database).