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2000 President · SC

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 53%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.90% · Republican 56.86%

R+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 53 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.902 − 56.860 = -15.958
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-15.958) = 0.959
  4. Absolute miss = |0.959| = 0.959

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6303, race ID 846 (538 database).