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2000 President · CA

Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 990 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 40%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.45% · Republican 41.65%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 40 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.450 − 41.651 = 11.799
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.799) = -4.798
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.798| = 4.798

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6300, race ID 810 (538 database).