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2000 Senate · CA

Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 900 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 32%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.84% · Republican 36.59%

D+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 32 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.843 − 36.587 = 19.256
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (19.256) = 0.744
  4. Absolute miss = |0.744| = 0.744

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6300, race ID 1684 (538 database).