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2000 President · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 2,050 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.44% · Republican 49.99%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.440 − 49.986 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-3.546) = -6.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.454| = 6.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6299, race ID 841 (538 database).