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2000 President · NC

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 48%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.15% · Republican 55.96%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.146 − 55.958 = -12.812
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-12.812) = 5.812
  4. Absolute miss = |5.812| = 5.812

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6294, race ID 833 (538 database).