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2000 President · NY

Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 844 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 38%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (24.189) = -11.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.189| = 11.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6281, race ID 840 (538 database).