2000 President · WI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 42%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%
D+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.220) = 2.780
- Absolute miss = |2.780| = 2.780
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6267, race ID 854 (538 database).