Skip to content

2000 Senate · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 33%

D+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.54% · Republican 37.04%

D+24.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 33 = 27.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.543 − 37.036 = 24.507
  3. Signed miss = 27.00 − (24.507) = 2.493
  4. Absolute miss = |2.493| = 2.493

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6267, race ID 1715 (538 database).