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2019 Governor · LA

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2019-11-10 (6 days before the election) · 640 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.33% · Republican 48.67%

D+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.333 − 48.667 = 2.666
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.666) = 1.335
  4. Absolute miss = |1.335| = 1.335

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62625, race ID 6299 (538 database).