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2000 President · IL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.60% · Republican 42.59%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.597 − 42.585 = 12.012
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.012) = -8.012
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.012| = 8.012

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6262, race ID 820 (538 database).