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2000 President · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-0.009) = 7.009
  4. Absolute miss = |7.009| = 7.009

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6261, race ID 815 (538 database).