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2000 Senate · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 60%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 60 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-24.061) = -8.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.939| = 8.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6251, race ID 1705 (538 database).