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2014 Senate · VA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 937 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 40%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.15% · Republican 48.34%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 40 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.150 − 48.338 = 0.812
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (0.812) = 8.188
  4. Absolute miss = |8.188| = 8.188

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62497, race ID 16 (538 database).