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2014 Governor · FL

SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 1,800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.077) = -1.922
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.922| = 1.922

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62485, race ID 1253 (538 database).