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2014 Governor · AR

Opinion Research Associates · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 39%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.49% · Republican 55.44%

R+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 39 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.494 − 55.436 = -13.942
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-13.942) = 17.942
  4. Absolute miss = |17.942| = 17.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62482, race ID 1232 (538 database).