2000 President · NH
RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 487 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 42%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.80% · Republican 48.07%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 46.803 − 48.070 = -1.267
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.267) = 2.267
- Absolute miss = |2.267| = 2.267
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6248, race ID 836 (538 database).