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2019 Governor · MS

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2019-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 47%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 51.91%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 47 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 51.914 = -5.088
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.088) = -1.912
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.912| = 1.912

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62475, race ID 6207 (538 database).