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2019 Governor · MS

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2019-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 384 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 51.91%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 51.914 = -5.088
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.088) = 4.088
  4. Absolute miss = |4.088| = 4.088

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62456, race ID 6207 (538 database).