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2019 Governor · MS

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2019-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 51.91%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 51.914 = -5.088
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.088) = 2.088
  4. Absolute miss = |2.088| = 2.088

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62238, race ID 6207 (538 database).