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2000 President · FL

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 812 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.009) = -1.991
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.991| = 1.991

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6220, race ID 815 (538 database).