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2000 Senate · FL

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 812 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.852) = 0.149
  4. Absolute miss = |0.149| = 0.149

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6220, race ID 1687 (538 database).