2000 Senate · MN
Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 900 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 37%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.83% · Republican 43.29%
D+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 37 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 48.834 − 43.293 = 5.541
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.541) = 3.458
- Absolute miss = |3.458| = 3.458
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6213, race ID 1695 (538 database).