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2000 President · DE

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.98% · Republican 41.92%

D+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.978 − 41.916 = 13.062
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (13.062) = -17.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-17.061| = 17.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 17.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6196, race ID 814 (538 database).