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2000 President · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.220) = -1.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.220| = 1.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6187, race ID 854 (538 database).