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2000 Senate · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 32%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.54% · Republican 37.04%

D+24.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 32 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.543 − 37.036 = 24.507
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (24.507) = 4.493
  4. Absolute miss = |4.493| = 4.493

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6187, race ID 1715 (538 database).